NYS Economic and Revenue Review FY2020

NEW YORK STATE SENATE MINORITY FINANCE COMMITTEE

March 02, 2019

NYS Economic and Revenue Review FY2020

Pursuant to section twenty-three of the State Finance Law, the Senate Republican Minority Finance Committee reviewed and analyzed the economic and revenue projections contained within the Executive Budget for FY 2020. Based upon staff analysis, the Senate Republican Minority Finance Committee projects All Funds tax revenues to be $267 million below the Executive for FY 2020. This amount is largely offset by the estimate of tax revenues for the remainder of the FY 2019, which is $261 million above the amended Executive estimate. This results in a two year All Funds tax revenue forecast that is $6 million below the Executive projection.

The Senate Republican Minority Finance Committee projects $145 million in General Fund revenues (inclusive of miscellaneous receipts and transfers) below the Executive Budget forecast for FY 2020. This amount is more than offset by the estimate for the remainder of FY 2019, which is $163 million above the Executive estimate.

Currently, economic indicators point to slower growth in 2019 than what has been experienced over the last several years. This includes slower growth in GDP, consumption, wages, and employment. This slow down can be attributed to uncertainty in the stock market, lingering trade tensions between the United States and China, and concern over rising interest rates.

On the positive side, if employment and wage growth exceed expectations, it would have a positive impact on the State’s personal income and sales tax revenues. Any additional revenues realized by the State should support the State’s reserve funds or be used to support taxpayer relief to make New York more competitive for job creation and more affordable for families.

NYS Economic and Revenue Review FY2020